Schedule & Forecast
Updated at 10:43 AM ETThese probabilities are calibrated — the percentages reflect how often comparable trips historically ran under similar conditions. When the model shows an 80% chance of running, about 80% of comparable trips historically ran.
Today
| Time | Vessel | Probability | Wind | Gusts | Waves | Dir |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 am | SSA Fast | 99% | 6.7 mph | 6.7 mph | 1 ft | SW |
| 11:20 AM | Hy-Line Fast | 99% | 6.7 mph | 6.7 mph | 1 ft | SW |
| 12:00 pm | SSA Trad. | 99% | 6.7 mph | 6.7 mph | 1 ft | SW |
| 12:45 PM | Hy-Line Fast | 99% | 6.7 mph | 6.7 mph | 1 ft | SW |
| 2:00 pm | SSA Fast | 99% | 6.7 mph | 6.7 mph | 1 ft | SW |
| 2:25 PM | Hy-Line Fast | 99% | 6.7 mph | 6.7 mph | 1 ft | SW |
| 2:45 pm | SSA Trad. | 99% | 6.7 mph | 6.7 mph | 1 ft | SW |
| 4:15 pm | SSA Trad. | 99% | 6.7 mph | 6.7 mph | 1 ft | SW |
| 4:15 PM | Hy-Line Fast | 99% | 6.7 mph | 6.7 mph | 1 ft | SW |
| 5:00 pm | SSA Fast | 99% | 6.7 mph | 6.7 mph | 1 ft | SW |
| 5:30 pm | SSA Trad. | 99% | 6.7 mph | 6.7 mph | 1 ft | SW |
| 5:40 PM | Hy-Line Fast | 99% | 6.7 mph | 6.7 mph | 1 ft | SW |
| 7:30 pm | SSA Fast | 99% | 6.7 mph | 6.7 mph | 1 ft | SW |
| 8:00 pm | SSA Trad. | 99% | 6.7 mph | 6.7 mph | 1 ft | SW |
| 8:40 PM | Hy-Line Fast | 99% | 6.7 mph | 6.7 mph | 1 ft | SW |
Today’s forecast uses data from NOAA Buoy 44020 (Nantucket Sound). Tomorrow and beyond use the Open-Meteo marine forecast, matched to the nearest 3-hour interval. Forecasts for days 1–3 are highly reliable; confidence decreases further out.
Running day-level model. Per-trip predictions use weather forecasts matched to each departure time.
Model & Methodology
The model estimates whether each scheduled ferry will run based on current and forecasted marine conditions.
When the model shows an 80% chance of running, about 80% of comparable trips historically ran. This means the probabilities are calibrated and can be interpreted directly.
Trained on 33,000+ trips (2023–present), including 870 confirmed cancellations, covering Nantucket routes. The model covers weather-related risk only; mechanical and operational cancellations are not modeled.
distinguishes high-risk conditions from normal operation
probabilities reflect real-world outcomes
Current Conditions
Data from NOAA Buoy 44020 (Nantucket Sound)
Wind Speed
6.7 mph
10:10 AM EDT
Wind Gusts
6.7 mph
10:10 AM EDT
Wind Direction
SW (230°)
10:10 AM EDT
Wave Height
1 ft
9:50 AM EDT
Wave Period
3s
9:50 AM EDT
Temperature
74°F
10:10 AM EDT
36 of the last 72 observations include wave height; 23 include dominant wave period (DPD). The buoy doesn't report wave data in every reading — we display the most recent available values, which may be less recent than the wind data.
Vessel Locations
